Welcome to the second issue of Indelible Ink! Thank you for the overwhelming response to the inaugural edition and for taking the time to subscribe to this newsletter. I noticed plenty of old friends and also new people who I don’t know yet. I look forward to all your comments and feedback; you can respond to the newsletter from your inbox and it will come directly to me.
Some of the information in this issue is in response to requests I received over the past week. I hope it addresses some of your questions and concerns.
The Big Deal
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), for the first time in its four-decade history, is contesting in more constituencies than its chief rival, the Indian National Congress. The BJP announced earlier this week that it would field 437 candidates. In comparison, Congress has announced 423 candidates so far, a drop from the 450 constituencies it contested during the last national election.
While the BJP’s decision to contest in more parliamentary constituencies underscores its growing national profile, it’s also partly because the party has lost its alliance with the regional Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. That has forced the BJP to run far more of its own candidates in those states than it did in the last election.
Meanwhile, Congress has made new alliances in Karnataka and Bihar. And in Uttar Pradesh, the alliance between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party — regional parties that have a formidable support base in the country’s largest state — also poses a significant threat to the BJP. In 2014, these three states proved to be bastions of power for the BJP and its allies, who won more than four out of every five seats there.
The BJP also needs to hold on to votes it won in 2014 with its allies in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand. It won over 90% of the seats in these eight states, forming about half of its eventual sweeping majority in 2014. Since then, however, the BJP has lost state assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. It also lost seats in the Gujarat assembly even as it held control over the state government. Its fraught relationship with the Shiv Sena, its ally in Maharashtra, may also prove costly.
Perhaps to offset some potential losses in these states, the BJP has stepped up its campaigns in West Bengal and Odisha, both of which resisted the saffron wave in 2014. The BJP was only able to win two out of 42 seats in West Bengal, where the All India Trinamool Congress won by a landslide. In Odisha, only one BJP candidate won in the 21 constituencies, with all the rest going to the Biju Janata Dal. Yet, there was a silver lining for the BJP — despite not winning many seats, its vote share was between 17% to 20% in the two states. It will seek to convert some of its near-losses in the last election to wins this time around.
Voter Meter
The third phase of voting took place on Tuesday, 23 April. This was the biggest phase, with voters from 117 constituencies in 15 states and union territories casting their votes. The Election Commission of India reported an average voter turnout of over 65%.
The actual numbers fluctuated wildly between states — Assam had the highest turnout with over 80% eligible voters casting their ballot, while Jammu & Kashmir saw only a little above 12% voters showing up at the election booth. This low turnout is partly because the constituency where the election took place in this phase was Anantnag, a region where a violent cycle of separatist militancy and government crackdowns has caused disaffection among voters.
Election officials have been extra cautious in this constituency — polling hours are shorter, and voting is spread over three election phases as a security measure. This means Anantnag will be part of the polling in the coming two phases of the election as well, and voter turnout could improve over that period.
The next phase of voting is on 29 April, when 71 constituencies from nine states go to the polls. This largely includes constituencies from Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. You can refer to the map below to see where the polling will take place next:
One of the constituencies where voting will take place this Monday is Begusarai in Bihar, where a triangular contest is underway between a relative newbie, 32-year-old Kanhaiya Kumar of the Communist Party of India, and two established leaders: union minister Giriraj Singh of the BJP and Tanweer Hassan of the Rashtriya Janata Dal.
Kumar is a former student political leader, whose arrest in 2016 over allegations of sedition led to a furious national political debate. He is yet to be charged in court with sedition, though he spent time in prison after his arrest. The young leader is a polarising figure, and this is his first time contesting in national elections. Here’s a great 2016 profile of him by BBC journalist Soutik Biswas.
This phase will also see voting in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan for the first time this election. The BJP lost in the assembly elections in both of these two states last year, and this could impact the party’s national performance as well.
One Ridiculous Thing
What does Prime Minister Narendra Modi do when he gets a cold? Does he like to eat mangoes? Does he ever get angry? Bollywood actor Akshay Kumar posed such burning questions to the PM on Wednesday, smack in the middle of the national elections. The hour-long “non-political” chat is supposed to give insight into the political leader’s personal life.
Kumar’s softball questions are a poor replacement for journalistic inquiry, a shortcoming made all the more glaring by Modi’s reluctance to sit for interviews with real journalists. You can watch this insane interview here.
Indelible Ink is a carefully curated summary of news stories on the 2019 Indian national election. Delivered each Sunday morning right to your inbox. Subscribe to Indelible Ink here.
Correction: An earlier version of the previous issue of this newsletter misstated that Hardik Patel was a candidate for the Congress party in this election. He was offered a ticket, but was disqualified from contesting because of his conviction in a rioting case related to the Patidar quota protests in 2015. He is still campaigning for Congress. I regret the error.